Spent the last 2 hours reading and taking notes from the MS Mobile Internet Report (key trends). Completed 125 pages which is 2/8 trends. MS expects Mobile Internet users to reach 2x desktop Internet users by 2010. We are witnessing the early phase of the 5th innovation cycle since the mainframe was started by IBM. Microsoft, Google, Apple and CISCO well-poised to take advantage using their strong incumbent position. 5 trends converging - 3G + VoIP + Video + SCN + Smartphones. Mobile data traffic expected to grow to more than 2b tetabytes by 2013 (131% CAGR) of which 64% is expected to be video (154% CAGR) - CISCO white paper cited by MS. Here is some interesting stuff from the report: 3G penetration very low in emerging economies < 10% + penetration in BRIC countries is < 1%; 37% in the US and 87% in Japan WiMAX - 86% of global population coverage + 78% of networks in Emerging Markets The Apple iPhone 3GS launched in 2009 is as powerful a computing device as the Apple iMac G3/600 launched in 2001 - its smaller and much cheaper In APAC, smartphone share is only 7% of total handset shipments MS expects 2.5G subscribers to peak in 2010 - 3G subscriber base expected to more than double by 2013 Trending - Unified Communication enabled by IP networks, smart-phones and easy to use software -all communication consolidated into a single place - see the third motif in my earlier post on consumer electronics motifs for 2010. (The first motif in that one should ideally have been Augmented Reality <read the Google Books preview of the first chapter> Bharti Airtel - 10th largest carrier in the world, BSNL at no.23. China Mobile is the world's largest carrier in terms of subscriber base. Both Indian carriers saw a year on year increase in their subscriber base of about 45% in 2009. Bharti saw a 22% fall in ARPU with BSNL's remaining stationary Switched access lines loosing by 10-12% every quarter to cable/ wireless from Q2, 2008 Yahoo.com, MSN.com, Google.com, Youtube and Facebook together account for around 15% of global Internet time - YouTube and Facebook gaining over the other three in share of Internet time
- Wi-Fi penetration only 3% in APAC; US - 31% in 2008, estimate is 37% in 2009 with projection of 44% by end 2010
Hope to complete the report by end of this week. Will post again.
